Cultural Narratives of the Presidential Horse Race (or why Biden is losing)

Story matters more than reality.

It’s a byproduct of a culture that sees the world through the distorted lens of media.

Not “The Media” with a capital M, the boogeymen that political junkies pass their time complaining about. I mean everything we consume - smartphones, TV, podcasts, radio, computers, headsets, and whatever computer chip you’re brave enough to let them implant you with.

For most people, it is their primary window into the world.

For some, it’s their only window.

And media prioritizes entertainment for sustenance, following the stickiest form of human communication tried and tested over millennia: characters, stakes, conflict, action, climax, resolution, repeat.

Through this model all complexity is flattened into symbols and slogans and all nuances are overlooked because they don’t advance the plot.

As a student of cultural theory and narratives I haven't seen enough simple framing of the two competing narratives of this race. Let's set aside any of the emotions surrounding the issues and the severity of the stakes and look at the 30,000 foot view.

First, let me lead with I am of the camp that believes the debate was a tipping point where Joe Biden cannot win this election. Why it was a tipping point is best articulated by Ben Hunt in this article.

Everything Joe Biden does for the rest of his life will be seen through the lens of [the debate]. Every step in public, every word spoken in public, every facial expression in public … everything he does in public for the rest of his life will be watched and examined and measured for signs of increasing decrepitude.

We not only saw what we saw, we had a shared moment where we know others saw it too and that opened the flood gates. The emperor has no clothes. The “character trait” is now locked in and all confirmation biases will prevail both retroactively and moving ahead.

So what does that do to the broader Biden vs Trump narrative?

Trump represents the outsider unlike anything we’ve ever seen before, working to restore America’s greatness. The establishment rigged the game against him but no matter what they do they cannot bring him down. Felony charges from a federal judge? That only feeds the narrative. He continues to fulfill this narrative destiny. And for a disillusioned electorate, it’s a compelling story.

Biden is the leader in our fight to save democracy. On paper, this could be a compelling story given it has high stakes and a clear enemy. It’s also the only route to take when your presidency is less popular than the guy you are running against.

But the problem is our main character is failing to fulfill his narrative destiny. He has become a symbol of how our modernist institutions are antiquated and misaligned with the interests of the American people, and that casts him as the antagonist of Trump’s story more than the protagonist of his own.

He also is supremely failing at being the messenger of the narrative when he is supposed to be its primary vessel. In the debate, even outside of all the doddering old man energy he brought, he let Trump completely minimize January 6th, failed to bring up any of the evidence to show how our democracy is in peril and managed to turn abortion rights (government tyranny) into the story of a women murdered by immigrants (?)

To the disengaged voter, Trump was chaotic, sure, but he already was president and life continued on and our institutions didn’t crumble, and oh by the way, a burger at McDonald’s was $2 cheaper.

To tell them now that Trump is some existential threat requires framing the narrative properly and Biden is incapable.

In the scenario that Biden drops today and Kamala steps in, that would overnight completely reframe the narrative.

In a race between two octogenarians, the bigger man realized to best serve his country he needed to let a younger voice take over while he gracefully bows out. Why? Because the stakes are that high and he needs to do what is right for the American people. Trump is that big of a threat.

Now he’s back to being a character in the right narrative, and with a deliciously dramatic plot twist that would likely be the most climactic moment where the “fight for democracy” prevails. And once you hit a climax, the conclusion is locked - she coasts to victory.

Maybe you’re of the mind that Biden in a coma is better than Trump. Or even that Biden very much is still on his game and will be a great president for 5 years to come.

But stories are more important than reality, and that story just isn’t working.

And if you are upset that this is where our culture is at today, I invited you to check out our Webby award winning podcast This Is Propaganda Show. Much of what we do is examine how we got to where we are. https://www.thisispropaganda.show/

And if you've already listened, sit tight we've got more episodes cooking.

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